CALIFORNIA FOCUS
FOR RELEASE: FRIDAY, MAY 10, 2024, OR THEREAFTER
BY THOMAS D. ELIAS
“MILLENIAL,
GEN Z MOVE-HOMES DOING CALIFORNIA A FAVOR”
All
those Millennials and adult Gen Z’ers who have moved back home to live with
parents after going off to college or to work in other places turn out to be
doing a big favor for other Californians.
Their
willingness to return to their old bedrooms, perhaps with changed posters on
the walls and better quality beds, is one big reason homelessness has not
climbed above the current 181,000-odd persons who are unhoused here every
night.
It’s also been a large factor in holding down the so-called “California
exodus” of the last few years, which saw about 750,000 Californians leave the
state in 2021 and 2022, for a net population loss of about 300,000.
Many,
too, also are helping their parents hang onto homes they’ve lived in for a
generation or more by contributing part of their pay toward mortgage payments
and other household expenses.
At
the same time, by declining to find multiple roommates and not moving into new
apartments erected in the current building boomlet, they are keeping vacancy
rates high in all but the most affordable buildings, something that might
eventually drive market prices down and possibly then lower vacancy rates.
There
has rarely been a larger or more dramatic housing migration than the
return-to-the-womb movement, according to statistics compiled by the RentCafe
website, which finds huge percentages of Millenials, and especially adult Gen
Z’ers staying with family late into adulthood.
First,
some definitions. The usual birth years for those considered Millenials are
1980 through 1996. This means most are aged 28-44. Gen Z is composed of folks
born between 1997 and 2012, its adult component now aged 21-27. There is some
variance in these definitions.
But
there’s little doubt at least one-fourth of all Millenials in California now
live with parents or other family, or that the Los Angeles metro area has the
largest move-home contingent, at 35 percent of all Millenials in the region.
The Riverside area has the same percentage of move-backs, while Millenials
living at home in the San Francisco and San Jose areas are somewhat less
prevalent, at 23 and 24 percent. The trend holds in the Central Valley, too,
with 35 percent of Sacramento Millenials living with close relatives and 30
percent in Stockton.
Among
Gen Z’ers, moves home are far more pronounced. Many are recent college
graduates starting out in various professions, but paid enough to live on their
own in apartments that often rent for $3,000 per month and up. Fully 80 percent
of those in the Los Angeles region are with parents or parent-like figures; 89
percent in Oxnard live similarly.
The
Gen Z figures are only slightly lower in San Francisco (72 percent), Stockton
(77 percent), San Diego (70 percent) and San Jose (74 percent).
This
is really all about affordability for young adults who current earn salaries
that would be adequate to provide them comfortable housing in most other states
– but not in much of California.
Actual
numbers are almost as staggering as the percentages. Metropolitan Los Angeles
is home to about 3 million Millenials, with some 1.3 million in childhood
nests. San Diego is about the only area bucking this trend, with only about 18
percent of Millenials living in childhood homes.
One
big question is how long this can last. Will many Millenials eventually marry
and move to states with far cheaper housing, like Texas, Idaho and Florida? Or
will more of them find roommates and begin to share new housing now going up
under California’s recent pro-density, pro-development laws?
No
one can reliably predict how this will play out over the next 10 years. But in
multi-child families, there may be a limit on how many return-home children a
childhood home and the parents who live there are willing and able to
accommodate.
This
implies there may be coming trends toward younger marriage ages, and the
concomitant problem of more divorces, as marital splits are most common among
those who marry youngest.
The
bottom line: No one knows exactly where this trend will lead, but adult
children living with parents has never been a formula for long-term stability.
-30-
Email
Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, "The Burzynski Breakthrough,
The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch
It," is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias
columns, visit www.californiafocus.net